• during the Asia Pacific trading session on Tuesday, the RBA announced the minutes of the latest interest rate resolution meeting
• the Reserve Bank of Australia said that energy and wage growth will push up inflation in the next few quarters, and the core CPI in the first quarter is expected to exceed 3%
• will the Aussie dollar / US dollar rebound after holding steady in the short term?
• during the Asia Pacific trading session on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the meeting minutes of the interest rate resolution in April.
• RBA stressed the upward pressure of inflation in its minutes, saying that global energy and wage increases have become key uncertainties in the inflation outlook,
In the next few quarters, Australian inflation expectations will continue to rise due to rising energy and food prices. It is expected that the core CPI in the first quarter will exceed 3%.
Therefore, the rise of CPI and wages will push forward the first interest rate hike.
• in terms of economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that Australia's growth prospects were still optimistic and the labor market was strong. Under the impact of the Omicron epidemic,
The Australian economy remains resilient. It is worth noting that the RBA members agreed that Australia's financial situation is still highly relaxed.
• on the whole, although the RBA previously said that it would not adjust its policy before the CPI data of Australia in the first quarter was released, the interest rate was also maintained unchanged in the last interest rate resolution. However, in the minutes of the meeting, the Reserve Bank of China Australia predicted that the core CPI in the first quarter would exceed 3%, which further increased the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing an interest rate increase in May.
The Australian dollar may therefore be supported.
AUD / USD technical analysis
From a technical point of view, the AUD / USD remains within the upward channel extended from the end of January. The retreat of the exchange rate since the high of 0.7661 after the release of the RBA interest rate resolution on April 5 has touched the support line at the bottom of the channel. From the 4-hour chart, the KDJ indicator deviates from the bottom of the price, that is, the price recorded a lower low, while the KDJ indicator tends to rise, indicating that the downward momentum of the Australian dollar / US dollar is fading.
If the AUD / USD rises in the future, the latest resistance level above looks towards 0.7378, and breaking this level may further rise to the inflection point level of 0.7475.
On the contrary, if the exchange rate continues to decline, it may fall to the lower support level of 0.7290.
